Papua New Guinea is home to landscapes of exceptional ecological and cultural value. Its forests, rivers, and agricultural lands support food security, livelihoods, and community identity. At the same time, these landscapes face increasing pressure. Natural and cultural landscapes are increasingly being converted–whether for logging, agriculture, or infrastructure development. While these choices generate immediate economic returns, their long-term impacts on communities, ecosystems, and resource resilience are often uncertain.
To better understand these trade-offs, Papua New Guinea (PNG) has applied UNDP’s Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA) to design sustainable futures for the oil palm and cocoa sectors. TSA is a structured, evidence-based method developed by UNDP in partnership with the PNG Conservation and Environment Protection Authority (CEPA) that compares the economic, social, and environmental outcomes of different land-use futures. It helps governments, businesses, and communities understand not only what might happen under different scenarios—but who benefits, what may be lost, and what the future costs and opportunities could be. The study implementation was commissioned to Grant Thornton, NL.
By incorporating national and local policy targets, TSA makes trade-offs visible. For example, how land-use choices may influence household income, cultural values, ecosystem conservation, and long-term economic stability. The process is being used to support dialogue among government agencies, private-sector actors, and civil society, helping to create a shared evidence base that can inform ongoing planning and decision-making. The TSA does not prescribe a single development pathway but provides evidence to support informed decision-making by government, private sector, landowners and communities.
